Cipolla’s Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
Carlo M. Cipolla (1922-2000), an Italian professor of economic history, wrote a paper entitled “The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity”. The original essay, written in Italian and likely published in 1976, leads to an English version published in 1987:
Source: Cipolla, Carlo M. (1987), Whole Earth Review: Access to Tools and Ideas, No 54 Spring 1987, POINT, pp2-7
Cipolla’s Five Laws of Human Stupidity
In the paper, he presents five basic laws of human stupidity:
(i) “Always and inevitably every one underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation”,
(ii) “The probability that a certain person will be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person”,
(iii) “A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses”,
(iv) “Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals…”, and
(v) “A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person”, including a corollary “A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit.”
Initially, Cipolla places the determination of intelligence or stupidity at the level of individual actions, as opposed to individual people. A stupid action harms the individual as well as others. An intelligent action benefits others as well as the individual. Thus, an individual can take intelligent as well as stupid actions.
However, Cipolla states that while people do not act consistently intelligent or stupid, one can plot the weighted average of their decisions over time. Thus, Cipolla’s classification applies to people as well as actions, see chart below:
The x-axis goes from “Damage to Self” to “Benefit to Self”. The y-axis goes from “Damage to Others” to “Benefit to Others”. These two axes create four quadrants. Intelligent people create benefits for themselves as well as others. Bandits create benefits for themselves at the expense of others. Stupid people harm themselves as well as others. Helpless people harm themselves but create benefits for others.
The diagonal from the top-left to the bottom-right of the chart separates the chart in two triangles:
(i) People above the diagonal create wealth in the best cases (the intelligent), or create wealth transfer in the worst cases (H1: Helpless with overtones of intelligence, and B1: Bandits with overtones of intelligence), and
(ii) (ii) People below the diagonal destroy wealth in all cases (H2: Helpless with overtones of stupidity, the Super-Stupid, the Common Stupid, and B2: Bandits with overtones of stupidity.)
Cipolla believes the Stupid act consistently stupid because of the nature of their actions. Randomness marks the nature of a stupid action. Stupid people consistently take random actions. Random actions average into behavioral incoherence. Behavioral incoherence becomes incomprehensible for people acting with a rational plan.
Using Cipolla’s Laws of Stupidity with John Boyd’s OODA Loop
Cipolla’s focus on actions connects him with John Boyd’s OODA loop, see link below. A “Boyd Action” becomes “Cipolla-intelligent” or “Cipolla-stupid”, based on the quality of the Decision process, given the consistency & usefulness of the Orientation step, as well as the accuracy & practicality of the Observation step.
Boyd’s OODA loop provides a process to create rational plans for intelligent action.
Using Cipolla’s Laws of Stupidity with Dmitry Chernov & Didier Sornette’s Inventory of Institutional Disasters
The random actions, and behavioral incoherence of the stupid make it impossible to anticipate their behavior. This makes it very hard to counter the damage that they cause. Cipolla’s focus on damages connects him to Dmitry Chernov & Didier Sornette’s inventory of institutional disasters. It also leads to the same conclusion: Large institutions scale-up the impact of individual behavior, enhancing the damaging power of the Stupid – willful blindness, information concealment, and all.
What is the optimal institutional scale that limits the damage of stupid actions?
Using Cipolla’s Laws of Stupidity with Robert Heinlein’s Notebooks of Lazarus Long
Looking at the “Intelligent” quadrant on the chart brings to mind Heinlein’s famous quote:
“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty. This is known as "bad luck.”
Source: Heinlein, Robert A. (1973), The Notebooks of Lazarus Long, G.P. Putnam’s Sons, New York, p 9
If you are an entrepreneur, remember Heinlein’s quote and persevere. Create your own good luck!
At the end of each post, we ask ourselves the following question before we publish it:
“What is an individual member of the next generation supposed to do with this?”
Personal practices based on this post, include:
(i) Map people’s actions with Cipolla’s chart.
(ii) Use Boyd’s OODA loop to improve your own actions.
(iii) When you recognize stupid action and incoherent behavior – individual or institutional - walk away to safety.
Minds are closing down under stress. People are tired of ideas. They want to know how to survive. “CTRI by Francois Gadenne” connects the dots of life-enhancing practices for the next generation, free of controlling algorithms, based on the lifetime experience of a retirement age entrepreneur, and continuously updated with Wealth, Health, and Statistics research performed on behalf of large companies.
Thanks for restacking!