“Constructive Skepticism” Volume 2 – Notebook #IV: The Template for Reading Research Papers – Reading List (2 of 10): John Boyd
For new readers: Please read the “Pinned Post” at the top of this Substack’s Home Page, and titled Why Use Public Peer-Review to Write a Book? - “See for Yourself”.
For returning readers & subscribers: This post connects the dots with last week’s post as a way to understand its audiences, as the second on a series of ten posts that complement the previous three posts that examined what readers do, say, and read.
First, Came Three Posts to Understand what Readers Do, Say, and Read
The first post in the series of three posts documented the size the iceberg of bad research papers over the last 50+ years, and how it sank meaningful innovation since then, and what we can do about it.
https://francoisgadenne.substack.com/p/constructive-skepticism-volume-2-aa0
The second post showed how we can move from “Trust Them” to “Show Me”, and to “See for Yourself” by asking good questions. It also showed how to perceive meaningful differences between “Tools, Checklists & Processes” by understanding the questions that they answer, and what we can say about these questions.
https://francoisgadenne.substack.com/p/constructive-skepticism-volume-2-37e
The third post pointed out that what we read reveals the nature of our questions. What we read points to the questions that we ask implicitly, or explicitly. This post started the process of sharing reading lists with a selection from CTRI library of books and papers.
https://francoisgadenne.substack.com/p/constructive-skepticism-volume-2-c53
And Then Came a Series of Ten Posts about CTRI’s Reading List
While the plan for this series of posts on understanding readers only considered these three posts, the experience of writing them showed a need for additional posts. This second post continues a series of ten posts that connect the selections from CTRI library of books and papers with its research programs in order to explain the reasons for their inclusion. First let’s summarize CTRI’s research programs.
Reading Research Papers in the Context of CTRI’s Research Programs
CTRI is a 501(c)(6) association that reads research papers about “Health, Wealth, & Statistics”, and translates them into plain English and clear mathematics. CTRI’s three programs of inquiry include:
The Trust & Verification Program:
A body of work in three volumes, called “Constructive Skepticism”, and the foundation for a professional curriculum as well as institutional training programs for individuals involved in the reading and peer-review of journal articles, and research papers. Publicly available material includes Substack posts started in January 2022
and the April 2024 print publication of the Template for Reading Research Papers on Amazon [https://www.amazon.com/CTRIs-Template-Reading-Research-Papers/dp/B0D2WBP7L1/ref=sr_1_3?sr=8-3].
This means that the Trust & Verification Program, and the "Constructive Skepticism" curriculum apply to any client-facing business or brand: How do you develop, and protect the trust that you receive from individual, and institutional clients? The short answer: Create "Tools, Checklist & Processes" that help them "See for Yourself".
The Trust & Verification Program, and the Template for Reading Research Papers provide value for institutions with publications that seek to protect and enhance their brand with visible “Tools, Checklists & Processes” for peer-review. Additionally, these provide value to start-ups seeking to apply automation to the development of datasets based on the reading of research papers in order to sort out the good papers from the bad papers.
The Client-Centric Planning and Communications Program:
A collection of "Tools, Checklist & Processes", including a developing software platform that combines Large Language Models with Expert Systems to extend, and to leverage the use of the household balance sheet in retirement planning. Publicly available material includes a number of conference presentations, Substack posts, “Constructive Skepticism” Workbook sections, Notebooks, and quantitative models that include a review of Ole Peters’ Ergodicity Economics, as well as an author-by-author history of Expected Value Optimization, Growth Optimal Solutions, and Client-Centric Planning.
The Client-Centric Planning and Communications Program provides value for established institutions, and start-ups that seek to improve, as well as automate their investment and/or retirement advice processes.
The Program of Terrain Theories for the Management of Ecosystems:
A collection of "Tools, Checklist & Processes" focused on helping start-ups in general, and Fintech Start-ups, in particular. Publicly available material includes Substack posts on Boston Fintech Week (2018, 2019, 2023), CTRI's Business Ecosystem Template, Gerd Gigerenzer’s “Fast & Frugal” Heuristics Program, and the study of individual longevity. Terrain Theories of Ecosystems expand the holistic view of individual clients (such as retirement planning), to a holistic view of the ecosystem that they live in. Terrain Theories observe that ecosystems harbor the means of their own disassembly. These means of disassembly grow to destroy the ecosystem when the health of terrain components falls below specific thresholds. Managing an ecosystem from the perspective of Terrain Theories feels like “Flying a Foil in the Flow”: Orienting foils in the flows of time and energy in order to keep terrain components above their thresholds of disassembly.
The Program of Terrain Theories for the Management of Ecosystems provides value for institutional business strategy, ranging from start-ups to established companies.
Second Post Connecting CTRI’s Reading List to CTRI’s Research Programs
While most of the books and papers in the reading list shown in earlier posts, and reproduced at the end of this post touch all three research programs, their center of gravity tends to rest in one program rather than the others. This post describes this relative matching, and focuses on the second author on the list. The previous post connected the first alphabetical entry on the reading list, Hannah Arendt, to CTRI’s Research Programs. This second post connects the second entry on the list: John Boyd.
Mentions of John Boyd center on the Trust & Verification Program, with references in several sections at the beginning of Volume 1 – Workbook #I: Our Shared Humanity of the “Constructive Skepticism” Curriculum, as well as in earlier posts from 2022 such as this one:
https://francoisgadenne.substack.com/p/a-reader-asks-tell-me-more-about-36a
His key concept, the “OODA-loop” (Observed, Orient, Decide, Act), brings the idea of “Process” to the “Constructive Skepticism” curriculum.
Readers will find additional references to John Boyd in Volume 2 - Handbook #1: Authors Profiles of the “Constructive Skepticism” Curriculum, see link below:
https://francoisgadenne.substack.com/p/volume-2-handbook-i-authors-profiles-00f
Arendt (see prior post: https://francoisgadenne.substack.com/p/constructive-skepticism-volume-2-e5b ) showed why “Constructive Skepticism” and the “Two-in-One-Mind” point of view apply to all of us, and not just to the experts. John Boyd gives us a “Process” to apply “Constructive Skepticism” to life’s uncertain, complex, and competitive situations.
Boyd stands out as an author who did not write books. Instead, he gave presentations called briefings. One could see him as the grandfather of PowerPoint presentations, except that his presentations had the weight of see-through acetates, the substance of a holistic thinker, and lasting influence as one can see in the continued use, since 1976, of the F16 fighter jets (a design based on his idea of “Energy Maneuverability”). We can still see some of his presentations in the form of videos: e.g.
.
Boyd’s major presentations form a body of work known as the “Discourse on Winning and Losing”, a set also called “The Green Book” (completed in 1987 but frequently edited afterward). This body of work includes:
- “Patterns of Conflict” (First draft completed in 1977): a 193-page briefing providing a “compendium of ideas and actions for winning and losing (individually) in a highly competitive world”,
- “Organic Design for Command and Control” (First draft completed in 1982): A briefing that describes how to cooperate with others (leadership) in complex, competitive, fast-moving situations,
- “The Strategic Game of ? and ?” (First draft completed in 1986): A briefing that addresses the mental work necessary to bring ourselves to meet our goals,
- “Destruction and Creation” (Written in 1976): An essay about the mental work necessary to deal with the external environment, and
- “Revelation”: A briefing that integrates these processes and makes them visible.
Other work includes:
- Before the “Discourse”: “A New Conception of Air-to-Air Combat”.
- After the ”Discourse”: (1992) “The Conceptual Spiral”, and
- His final briefing (1995) “The Essence of Winning and Losing” focused on the his core ideas.
Boyd shows the existential relevance of the “Spinach” analogy: Contrary to popular belief, spinach is not high in iron thus “Spinach” works as an analogy for: “Things we think unquestionably true but look ambiguously false after asking a few questions.” We all live by mental-maps that approximate reality, and Boyd sees change and uncertainty as fundamental, unresolvable characteristics of reality. Thus, Arendt’s “Two-in-One-Mind” thinking is necessary to drive a fast, real-time “Process” (The “OODA-Loop”) that ensures these maps remain good enough representations of reality, and that we can navigate them fast enough for survival. The key to come to a good decision in uncertain, complex, and competitive situations is to move faster than the opposing decision-maker. Boyd sought to move inside his competitors’ own “OODA-Loop”, to trun their decision-making process into a closed-system, and to set the winning tempo with the speed of his own “OODA-Loop”.
Boyd connected the ideas of energy maneuverability in “Phase Space” with the flow of time (“He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives”). A connection that repeats with other authors mentioned in the “Constructive Skepticism” Curriculum, such as Ole Peters (Ergodicity Economics), and Tim Garrett (The “Garrett Relation”),
These connections led to the development of the Business Ecosystem Template, and the idea of managing life, business, and investment portfolios as “Foils in the Flow” with individual trajectories defined by the passage of time. See link below: https://francoisgadenne.substack.com/p/workbook-for-volume-1-part-iii-section-245
CTRI’s Top 10 List of Readings Includes:
Arendt, Hannah (1971), Thinking and Moral Considerations, Social Research, 38:3 (1971: Autumn). P417
[Boyd, John] Osinga, Frans P.B. (2007), Science, Strategy and War, The strategic theory of John Boyd, Routeledge
Carse, James P. (1980), Death and Existence, A Conceptual History of Mortality, John Wiley & Sons
Cipolla, Carlo M. (2019) with a foreword by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity, Doubleday
Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly (1997), Finding Flow: The Psychology of Engagement with Everyday Life, Basic Books
Gigerenzer, Gerd (2023) The Intelligence of Intuition, Cambridge University Press
Llinás, Rodolfo R. (2001), “I of the Vortex: From Neuron to Self”, MIT Press
Mastrolia, Stacy, Zielonka, Piotr & McGoun, Elton (2014), Conjuring Reality: The Magic of the Practice of Accounting”, MBA-CE, Volume 22, Number 3, pages 3-17
Peters, Ole (2018), Course Notes, London Mathematical Laboratory
Zwecher, Michael J. (2010), Retirement Portfolios, Theory, Construction, and Management, Wiley
Looking forward to seeing your own lists, and reading your comments.
“CTRI by Francois Gadenne” writes a series of Workbooks, Handbooks & Notebooks about “Constructive Skepticism” with a process of public peer review on Substack. These books connect the dots of life-enhancing practices for the next generation, free of controlling algorithms, based on the lifetime experience of a retirement age entrepreneur, and continuously updated with insights from reading Wealth, Health, & Statistics (i.e. AI/ML/LLM) research papers on behalf of large companies as the co-founder of CTRI.