Reference Narratives for “Large-World” Decisions
This is a follow-up to the previous post about “Radical Uncertainty”.
It provides sources that you can use to develop your own collection of reference narratives to make better “large-world” decisions than you would otherwise make with “small-world” quantitative models.
Before we start, and to contrast “large-world” reference narratives with “small-world” quantitative models, see below an excellent all-in-one source for the latter:
Source: Page, Scott (2018), The Model Thinker, What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You, Basic Books
Reference Narratives from Belief Systems with a Long History
Taleb suggests that we re-read the teachings of belief systems with deep historical roots. His books are opinionated summaries of such belief systems, with a focus on skepticism, and a mathematical overlay, thus a good place to start if you do not have the time to go back to the original texts.
Source: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2012), Antifragile, Random House
If you have an interest in skepticism, Popkin presents a deep, academic review of key moments in the history of skepticism.
Source: Popkin, Richard H. (2003), The History of Skepticism, from Savoranola to Bayle, Oxford University Press
Reference Narratives from Popular Culture
The Fabulists provide teachings from popular culture with deep historical roots. This takes longer to read than Taleb, requires translations, and may include material that we had to memorize in school.
- In Greek: Aesop
Source: Perry, Ben Edwin (1952), Aesopica, University of Illinois Press
- In Latin: Babrius and Phaedrus
Source: Perry, Ben Edwin (1965), Brabrius and Phaedrus, Fables, Loeb Classical Library
- In Old French: Rabelais
Source: Boulenger, Jacques and Scheler Lucien (1955), Rabelais, Oeuvres completes, Bibliotheque de la Pleiade, Gallimard
- In French: La Fontaine
Source: Groos, Rene and Schiffrin, Jacques (1954), La Fontaine, Fables et Contes, Gallimard
Reference Narratives from Psychology
Peterson abstracts ancestral narratives from belief systems and from popular culture into maps of meaning. His popularity shows that it filled a gap for a large audience.
Source: Peterson, Jordan B. (2018), 12 Rules for Life, An Antidote to Chaos, Random House Canada
Source: Peterson, Jordan B. (2021), Beyond Order, 12 more rules for life, Penguin | Portfolio
Reference Narratives from Philosophy and Science
“Farnam Street” runs a world-wide-web effort to document time-tested ideas. You can read their website as well as read their printed books.
Source: “Farnam Street” (2019), The Great Mental Models, Vol. 1 and Vol.2, Latticework Publishing, Inc.
Reference Narratives from Process Models
Osinga documents the procedural prudence of John Boyd. This moves reference narratives from stories to processes.
Source: Osinga, Frans P.B. (2007), Science, Strategy and War, The strategic theory of John Boyd, Routeledge
Reference Narratives from Applied Mathematics
Hamming articulates reference narratives for the field of applies mathematics. Great stuff if you like mathematics. This is were the boundary line between reference narratives and quantitative models becomes fuzzy.
Source: Hamming, Richard W. (1996, 2020), The Art of Doing Science and Engineering: Learning to Learn, Stripe Press
Source: Hamming, Richard W. (1985), Methods of Mathematics, Applied to Calculus, Probability, and Statistics.
And the list goes on…
At the end of each post, we ask ourselves the following question before we publish it:
“What is an individual supposed to do with this?”
Personal practices based on this post:
(i) What do you do to grow your own list of reference narratives based on your daily life experience? Do you keep notes? Do you talk about it with friends?
(ii) What do your read, watch, or listen to, on a weekly to monthly basis, to build-up your own list of reference narratives?
Minds are closing down under stress. People are tired of ideas. They want to know how to survive. “CTRI by Francois Gadenne” connects the dots of life-enhancing practices for the next generation, free of controlling algorithms, based on the lifetime experience of a retirement age entrepreneur, and continuously updated with Wealth, Health, and Statistics research performed on behalf of large companies.