Workbook for Volume 1 – Part II – Section #20: Making Good Individual Decisions
For new readers: Please read the “Pinned Post” at the top of this Substack’s Home Page, and titled Why Use Public Peer-Review to Write a Book? - “See for Yourself”.
For returning readers and subscribers: This post introduces the Revised Version for Volume 1 – Part II – Section #20: Making Good Individual Decisions
Summary:
Section #20: Making Good Individual Decisions – This section brings closure to the content sections of this workbook – Volume 1 - Part II: Making Good Individual Decisions. The Workbook for Volume I - Part I: Our Shared Humanity sets the stage for Making Good Decisions as an “Embodied Predictor”. “Brains” evolved as “Emulators” of reality to manage accurate “Motions” with precise “Predictions”. Making good decisions starts with making good “ Embodied Predictions”. Making good individual “Predictions” requires individual autonomy for mobility, as well as “Two-in-One-Mind” thinking in order to avoid forced errors induced by external, controlling forces, or unforced errors from within due to unexamined internal thought processes. Good “Embodied Predictions” require “Ecological Rationality”: We move like “Foils in a Flow” that match “Perceptions” and “Predictions” with the structure of the “Task Environment”. This Workbook for Volume 1 - Part II – Making Good Individual Decisions shows how to use the technologies of Mediated “Perceptions” to Make Good Individual “Embodied Predictions” in “Task Environments” ruled by “Dominance Hierarchies”. “Predictions” mediated with “Tools” based on the “Small Worlds” assumptions of the Logic & Statistics Program become fragile in the “Large World”. For instance, the “Rational”, collective “Predictions” of “Ensemble Averages” rarely match the typical individual experience. This biased filtering of reality starts with the use of language, and the “Word Magic” that comes from naming things: We see what we understand, and we understand what we name. This conjuring of reality also applies to “Number Magic” and the use of quantitative “Tools” to make decisions. Several “Maintenance Programs”, and “Repair Programs” have developed over time to address the “Willful Ignorance, Error & Deceit” that comes from “Word Magic” and “Number Magic”. The enhanced-Cipolla Chart provide an ecologically rational map of these developments to remind us of the value of “Constructive Skepticism” to make good individual decisions: What do we need to know about the “Axioms, Assumptions & Hypotheses” of the “Tools, Checklists & Processes” of mediated “Perceptions” in order to make good use of them?
Developing…
”CTRI by Francois Gadenne” writes a business book in three volumes, published serially on Substack for public peer-review. The book connects the dots of life-enhancing practices for the next generation, free of controlling algorithms, based on the lifetime experience of a retirement age entrepreneur, & continuously updated with insights from reading Wealth, Health, & Statistics research papers on behalf of large companies as the co-founder of CTRI.