Workbook for Volume 1 – Part II – Section #16: The “Word Magic” & “Number Magic” of “Black Swans” as a “Repair Program” of the Logic & Statistical Program
For new readers: Please read the “Pinned Post” at the top of this Substack’s Home Page, and titled Why Use Public Peer-Review to Write a Book? - “See for Yourself”.
For returning readers and subscribers: This post introduces the Revised Version for Volume 1 – Part II – Section #16: The “Word Magic” & “Number Magic” of “Black Swans” as a “Repair Program” of the Logic & Statistical Program
Summary:
Section #16: The “Word Magic” & “Number Magic” of “Black Swans” as a “Repair Program” of the Logic & Statistical Program – This section discusses the origins of Antifragility, and how it turned into a “Repair Program” for the Logic & Statistics Program. “Antifragility” addresses the assumption of “Normally Distributed” “Random Variables”. Taleb’s “Word Magic” – creating the label of “Black Swans” - shows the limits of the “Number Magic” of statistical “Tools” based on “Type 1 Randomness” (“Mild Randomness”) when applied to “Large World” problems. Taleb shows that using “Checklists for pattern-matching” from the Heuristics & Bias Program may not extend the reliability of probabilistic models built with “Practices for perfection in the presence of cause & effect” from the Logic & Statistics Program. Both programs use the same “Expected Value” or “Expected Utility” decision criteria that do not see “Black Swans”. The “Word Magic” and the “Number Magic” of “Black Swans” help us see what lurks beyond the “Number Magic” of traditional “Probabilities”. This makes Taleb’s “Antifragile” a “Repair Program” for modeling “Large Word” problems with the “Tools” of the Logic & Statistics Program.
Developing…
”CTRI by Francois Gadenne” writes a business book in three volumes, published serially on Substack for public peer-review. The book connects the dots of life-enhancing practices for the next generation, free of controlling algorithms, based on the lifetime experience of a retirement age entrepreneur, & continuously updated with insights from reading Wealth, Health, & Statistics research papers on behalf of large companies as the co-founder of CTRI.