Workbook for Volume 1 – Part IV – Section #15: Foundational Papers from the 20th Century to WWII (2 of 3) – Ramsey, Neyman/Pearson, Fisher, & Kolmogorov
For new readers: Please read the “Pinned Post” at the top of this Substack’s Home Page, and titled Why Use Public Peer-Review to Write a Book? - “See for Yourself”.
For returning readers and subscribers: This post introduces a Revised Version for Volume 1 – Part IV – Section #15: Foundational Papers from the 20th Century to WWII (2 of 3) – Ramsey, Neyman/Pearson, Fisher, & Kolmogorov
Summary:
Volume 1 – Part IV – Section #15: Foundational Papers from the 20th Century to WWII (2 of 3) – Ramsey, Neyman/Pearson, Fisher, & Kolmogorov - The first half of the 20th century continued the formalization of the mathematics of “Expected Value” with Subjective Probabilities (Frank Ramsey, Abraham Wald, Jimmie Savage), Hypothesis Testing (Jerzy Neyman & E.S. Pearson, Ronald Fischer), & Probabilities (Andrei Kolmogorov). However, the mathematics of continuous, stochastic change made the application of Logic & Statistics Program to Financial Economics increasingly abstract, and restricted to “Small Worlds” with specific “Axioms, Assumptions & Hypotheses”. These formalizations for the rigorous application of continuous calculus restricted the types of random variables with which one could create justifiable results. Foundations matters more than we usually know. This means that researchers must disclose, or readers must discover for themselves these “Axioms, Assumptions & Hypotheses” and their implications so that individuals can make good, real-life decisions based on informed consent when facing prescriptive recommendations based on constrained formalizations.
Developing…
”CTRI by Francois Gadenne” writes a business book in three volumes, published serially on Substack for public peer-review. The book connects the dots of life-enhancing practices for the next generation, free of controlling algorithms, based on the lifetime experience of a retirement age entrepreneur, & continuously updated with insights from reading Wealth, Health, & Statistics research papers on behalf of large companies as the co-founder of CTRI.