Book Editing: “Making Good Decisions”
Revised Part IV – Section #11: Calculating Projections with the Tools of the 19th Century (2 of 4)
This free, public post shares the edited version of part IV – Section #11
For readers that do not have the time to read the two-page pdf:
Part IV - Section #11: Calculating Projections with the Tools of the 19th Century (2 of 4) - Sections #10 through 14 present a selection of “Calculated Projections” with the tools of 19th Century. These “Calculated Projections” show the foundational presence of alternatives to “Expected Value”, including “Time Average”. The third step of these “Calculated Projections” articulates the difference in calculating an arithmetic mean vs. a geometric mean as a decision criterion. The fourth step highlights an important difference between rates of return and multipliers. Multipliers of the 19th Century imply the “Growth Dynamics” of the 21st. Century. Decimals provide the same information as the percentage rate of return, but in a form that enables changing compounding frequencies, and (in the 20th Century) the use of calculus [The mathematics of Change based on the infinitely large & the infinitely small as contrasted with the Mathematics of Chance based on discrete percentages & probabilities]. Not only must we understand human relationships (e.g. “Who Benefits?) to make good individual decision, but even the basic use of mathematical results requires that we “Observe” & “Orient” ourselves explicitly about the assumptions, hypotheses, models & methods, theories, rules & laws behind such “Decision” tools for fear of “Willful Ignorance”, Error & Deceit, especially so for decision tools used to nudge, censor, or mandate us into “Action”.
To read these sections as they appear in the book, print the pdf so that you can see the illustrations on the right page as you read the text on the left page:
- Each combination of left and right pages stands alone, as a “chunk” of information, while fitting in an overall storyline.
- Words in bold italics in the text indicate a Glossary entry.
- Words and sentences in “quoted italics” indicate terms-of-art, book & paper titles, or verbatim from referenced authors.
Paying subscribers receive the full pdf of the book, one completed part at a time, including:
Part I: Our “Shared Humanity”
Part II: Making Good “Individual Decisions”
Part III: Making Good “Business Decisions”
Part IV: Making Good “Investment Decisions”
Part V: Template for Reading Research Papers
Epilogue
Glossary
Index
References
“CTRI by Francois Gadenne” writes a business book, published on Substack for peer-review and readers’ comments, at the rate of one sequentially numbered, two-page section per day. The book connects the dots of life-enhancing practices for the next generation, free of controlling algorithms, based on the lifetime experience of a retirement age entrepreneur, and as the co-founder of CTRI continuously updated with insights from Wealth, Health, and Statistics research performed on behalf of large companies.